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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 64

Chicago Bears 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 34 for 12 yards (43-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.98 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP