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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (9-J.Brisker).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.90 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP