4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(8:55) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to CHI 30 for no gain (45-A.Ogbongbemiga; 26-N.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model