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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 3-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CHI 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.72 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP