Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Chicago Bears 17

(11:23) 3-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to CHI 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.57 EP
73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model