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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 7 at the 53
Chicago Bears 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28
What Actually Happened
(1:36) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.93 EP
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.58 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -1.99 EP
KICK
-0.90 EP
- 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
- 72% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT
-0.65 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
