Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NO defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- NO offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- Kirk Cousins (ATL): -0.051 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- ATL offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 18
NO
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:09 TD ATL (3:09) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – ATL 6
- Q2 10:23 FG ATL (10:23) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 0 – ATL 10
- Q2 04:38 TD NO (4:38) 66-W.Sherman reported in as eligible. 6-T.Shough scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – ATL 10
- Q3 08:55 FG ATL (8:55) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-21-J.Reid, Defensive Offside, declined. NO 7 – ATL 13
- Q3 02:19 FG NO (2:19) 39-C.Smyth 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 10 – ATL 13
- Q4 10:47 FG ATL (10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 10 – ATL 16
- Q4 02:57 FG ATL (2:57) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 10 – ATL 19
- Q4 01:16 TD NO (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 85-R.Bell for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – ATL 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(13:08) 13-B.Pinion punts 69 yards to NO 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-N.Miller-Hines to NO 19 for 11 yards (34-J.Robinson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 79%
(10:35) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to NO 23 for 9 yards (33-J.Sanker; 21-J.Reid).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 73%
(6:19) 32-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to ATL 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 27 for 2 yards (31-J.Howden).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(4:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to NO 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(3:31) 32-K.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Robinson, Center-49-Z.Wood, RECOVERED by ATL-84-F.Franks at NO 8. 84-F.Franks pushed ob at NO 5 for 3 yards (7-T.Hill).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 67%
(14:18) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%
(10:23) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(3:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to NO 6, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 20 for 14 yards (35-N.Brooks).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(:53) 32-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to ATL 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%
(8:55) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-21-J.Reid, Defensive Offside, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 55%
(6:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 29 for 14 yards (20-D.Alford).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 91%
(4:06) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 7-T.Hill to ATL 9 for 13 yards (39-C.Henderson; 0-D.Deablo).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(2:19) 39-C.Smyth 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%
(10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(9:53) 32-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 24 for 9 yards (53-J.Ford).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 20 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 93%
(2:57) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 56 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Estime left tackle to NO 46 for 2 yards (39-C.Henderson; 55-K.Elliss).
See the full breakdown →
