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New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NO
43.9%
ATL
56.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (ATL): -0.051 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
ATL 24
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NO

Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Nathan Shepherd DT Out Ankle
Chris Olave WR Out Illness
Bryan Bresee DT Out Knee
Demario Davis LB Questionable Calf
Dillon Radunz G Questionable Knee
Spencer Rattler QB Questionable Finger

ATL

Ronnie Harrison LB Out Illness
Sam Roberts DT Out Knee
Clark Phillips III CB Out Triceps
DeMarcco Hellams S Out Hamstring
Brandon Dorlus DT Out Hamstring
Liam McCullough LS Questionable Illness
A.J. Terrell CB Questionable Illness
Darnell Mooney WR Questionable Knee
Kyle Pitts TE Questionable Knee
Drake London WR Questionable Knee
Ruke Orhorhoro DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 17
–
ATL 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:09 TD ATL (3:09) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – ATL 6
  • Q2 10:23 FG ATL (10:23) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 0 – ATL 10
  • Q2 04:38 TD NO (4:38) 66-W.Sherman reported in as eligible. 6-T.Shough scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – ATL 10
  • Q3 08:55 FG ATL (8:55) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-21-J.Reid, Defensive Offside, declined. NO 7 – ATL 13
  • Q3 02:19 FG NO (2:19) 39-C.Smyth 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 10 – ATL 13
  • Q4 10:47 FG ATL (10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 10 – ATL 16
  • Q4 02:57 FG ATL (2:57) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NO 10 – ATL 19
  • Q4 01:16 TD NO (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 85-R.Bell for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – ATL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:08) 13-B.Pinion punts 69 yards to NO 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-N.Miller-Hines to NO 19 for 11 yards (34-J.Robinson).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 79%

    (10:35) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to NO 23 for 9 yards (33-J.Sanker; 21-J.Reid).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:19) 32-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to ATL 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 27 for 2 yards (31-J.Howden).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to NO 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:31) 32-K.Kroeger punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Robinson, Center-49-Z.Wood, RECOVERED by ATL-84-F.Franks at NO 8. 84-F.Franks pushed ob at NO 5 for 3 yards (7-T.Hill).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 67%

    (14:18) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (10:23) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to NO 6, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 20 for 14 yards (35-N.Brooks).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:53) 32-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to ATL 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

    (8:55) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-21-J.Reid, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 55%

    (6:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 29 for 14 yards (20-D.Alford).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 91%

    (4:06) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 7-T.Hill to ATL 9 for 13 yards (39-C.Henderson; 0-D.Deablo).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (2:19) 39-C.Smyth 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:53) 32-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 24 for 9 yards (53-J.Ford).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 93%

    (2:57) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Estime left tackle to NO 46 for 2 yards (39-C.Henderson; 55-K.Elliss).