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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 33

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-21-J.Reid, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model