Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

(3:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to NO 6, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-D.Pettis to NO 20 for 14 yards (35-N.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.94 EP
57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model