4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to NO 23 for 9 yards (33-J.Sanker; 21-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.33 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model