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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 32-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to ATL 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to ATL 27 for 2 yards (31-J.Howden).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.40 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 77, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP