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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to NO 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-35-N.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.50 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model