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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.02 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model