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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 39-C.Smyth 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model