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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(6:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 29 for 14 yards (20-D.Alford).

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model