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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 16 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 45-Z.Gonzalez 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.83 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model