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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 19

What Actually Happened

(2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Estime left tackle to NO 46 for 2 yards (39-C.Henderson; 55-K.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.13 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -0.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model