Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(13:08) 13-B.Pinion punts 69 yards to NO 8, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-N.Miller-Hines to NO 19 for 11 yards (34-J.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model