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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 22

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(4:06) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 7-T.Hill to ATL 9 for 13 yards (39-C.Henderson; 0-D.Deablo).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.75 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model