Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(:53) 32-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to ATL 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.58 EP
57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model