4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌨 Snow Spread 14.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIA
25.8%
NE
74.2%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.188 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Drake Maye (NE): +0.316 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Quinn Ewers (MIA): +0.100 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
NE 29
Projected margin: NE by 8 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

MIA

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Calf
Jason Sanders K Out Hip
De'Von Achane RB Doubtful Shoulder
Quinton Bell LB Questionable Illness
Aaron Brewer C Questionable Neck
Austin Jackson T Questionable Back
Jordyn Brooks LB Questionable Hamstring
Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable Ribs
Chop Robinson LB Questionable Concussion

NE

Robert Spillane LB Out Ankle
Harold Landry III LB Out Knee
Khyiris Tonga DT Out Foot
Jared Wilson G Out Concussion
Jack Westover FB Questionable Ankle
Charles Woods CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 10
–
NE 38

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:18 TD NE (13:18) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 00:57 TD NE (:57) (Shotgun) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 38-R.Stevenson. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 10:18 TD MIA (10:18) 14-Q.Ewers pass short left to 6-M.Washington for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NE 14
  • Q2 00:32 FG MIA (:32) 47-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 10 – NE 14
  • Q2 00:03 FG NE (:03) 36-A.Borregales 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. MIA 10 – NE 17
  • Q3 07:34 TD NE (7:34) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – NE 23
  • Q3 02:25 TD NE (2:25) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – NE 30
  • Q4 12:44 TD NE (12:44) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – NE 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (5:57) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 14-Q.Ewers pass incomplete short right to 19-C.Wilson (51-J.Gibbens) [33-A.Jennings].

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to MIA 9, Center-47-J.Ashby. 6-M.Washington to MIA 11 for 2 yards (47-J.Ashby; 48-J.Tavai).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (7:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to NE 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-81-T.Wease.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (5:04) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle to NE 40 for no gain (25-T.Dodson; 20-J.Brooks).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (1:42) 36-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Z.Sieler), Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Marshall at 50. 33-J.Marshall to NE 40 for 10 yards (81-A.Hooper).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 72%

    (:32) 47-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 16 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 27 yards to NE 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:47) 16-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to NE 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-27-E.Bonner. PENALTY on MIA-27-E.Bonner, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NE 44.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to NE 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 86-E.Chism.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to MIA 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-15-M.Mapu. PENALTY on MIA-18-N.Westbrook-Ikhine, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 9.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:54) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NE 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 86-E.Chism.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (5:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to MIA 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:58) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to NE 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-18-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.