Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(:47) 16-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to NE 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-27-E.Bonner. PENALTY on MIA-27-E.Bonner, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NE 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.74 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model