Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 38

(7:54) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to NE 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 86-E.Chism.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.35 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model