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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 20

New England Patriots 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 36-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-Z.Sieler), Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer, RECOVERED by MIA-33-J.Marshall at 50. 33-J.Marshall to NE 40 for 10 yards (81-A.Hooper).

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model