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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 14-Q.Ewers pass incomplete short right to 19-C.Wilson (51-J.Gibbens) [33-A.Jennings].

The Three Options

GO +3.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.45 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model