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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to NE 31, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-81-T.Wease.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.93 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 38, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP