Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 65

New England Patriots 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

(9:54) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to MIA 9, Center-47-J.Ashby. 6-M.Washington to MIA 11 for 2 yards (47-J.Ashby; 48-J.Tavai).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.56 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model