Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 38

(11:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to NE 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 86-E.Chism.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.25 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model