Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 24

(4:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 27 yards to NE 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model