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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 34

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(:32) 47-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.41 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model