Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 38

(4:58) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to NE 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-18-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.10 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 82, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model