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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 60

New England Patriots 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle to NE 40 for no gain (25-T.Dodson; 20-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.01 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model