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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 60

New England Patriots 38 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to MIA 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.62 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP