Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 65

New England Patriots 38 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to MIA 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-15-M.Mapu. PENALTY on MIA-18-N.Westbrook-Ikhine, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.12 EP
55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model