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New York Jets

3-14 HC Aaron Glenn
@
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Buffalo Bills

12-5 HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 ET New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 12.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NYJ
12.3%
BUF
87.7%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.225 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Mitchell Trubisky (BUF) -0.011 vs Brady Cook (NYJ) -0.416 EPA/dropback (BUF starting Mitchell Trubisky in place of Josh Allen; NYJ starting Brady Cook in place of Tyrod Taylor)
  • BUF offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.172 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 15 8–22
–
BUF 27 20–34
Projected margin: BUF by 12 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 18

NYJ

Brandon Stephens CB Out Neck
Xavier Newman-Johnson G Out Knee
Jelani Woods TE Out Hamstring
Micheal Clemons DE Out Ankle
Breece Hall RB Out Knee
Qwan'tez Stiggers CB Out Knee
Isaiah Davis RB Out Concussion
Mason Taylor TE Out Neck
Tyrod Taylor QB Questionable Knee
Joe Tippmann G Questionable Hip

BUF

Jordan Poyer S Out Hamstring
DaQuan Jones DT Out Calf
Terrel Bernard LB Out Calf
Jordan Phillips DT Questionable Ankle
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Hamstring
Dalton Kincaid TE Questionable Knee
Deone Walker DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 8
–
BUF 35

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:22 TD BUF (8:22) 11-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-D.Knox for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 11:48 TD BUF (11:48) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-Ty.Johnson. 26-Ty.Johnson right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 05:04 TD BUF (5:04) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 20
  • Q3 07:52 TD BUF (7:52) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 27
  • Q4 12:09 TD BUF (12:09) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 26-Ty.Johnson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 35
  • Q4 07:37 TD NYJ (7:37) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 4-B.Cook pass short right to 47-A.Beck for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – BUF 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:41) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 70%

    (4:38) (Shotgun) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 33 for no gain (95-E.Watts).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:11) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to BUF 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 0-K.Coleman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 68%

    (14:52) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 83-K.Latu to NYJ 27 for 7 yards (95-E.Watts).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 28%

    (7:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete short left to 31-K.Herbert [57-A.Epenesa].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:33) 4-B.Cook left guard to NYJ 36 for 2 yards (57-A.Epenesa).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 49%

    (:36) 14-A.McNamara punts 39 yards to BUF 2, impetus ends at BUF 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-K.Nwangwu.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (12:52) 4-B.Cook left guard to NYJ 39 for no gain (57-A.Epenesa). PENALTY on BUF-57-A.Epenesa, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

    (7:52) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-53-M.Walker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (2:19) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 3 for -2 yards (91-J.Briggs).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:05) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to BUF 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-K.Coleman to BUF 45 for 2 yards (82-A.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 77%

    (2:12) 26-Ty.Johnson right end to NYJ 28 for 2 yards (36-J.Taylor; 53-M.Walker).

    See the full breakdown →