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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:38) (Shotgun) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 33 for no gain (95-E.Watts).

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.04 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model