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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 41

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(:36) 14-A.McNamara punts 39 yards to BUF 2, impetus ends at BUF 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-K.Nwangwu.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model