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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 35 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 26-Ty.Johnson right end to NYJ 28 for 2 yards (36-J.Taylor; 53-M.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.54 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model