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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 61

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 4-B.Cook left guard to NYJ 39 for no gain (57-A.Epenesa). PENALTY on BUF-57-A.Epenesa, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model