Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 65

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(6:41) 14-A.McNamara punts 33 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model