Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 73

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 29

(6:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-53-M.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.53 EP
76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model