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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 49

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(7:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete short left to 31-K.Herbert [57-A.Epenesa].

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.61 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model