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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:52) (Shotgun) 11-M.Trubisky pass short left to 83-K.Latu to NYJ 27 for 7 yards (95-E.Watts).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model