Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 93

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 29

(:05) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to BUF 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-K.Coleman to BUF 45 for 2 yards (82-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.27 EP
57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 93, worth -5.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model