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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 29 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 3 for -2 yards (91-J.Briggs).

The Three Options

GO +3.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 1, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model