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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 4-B.Cook left guard to NYJ 36 for 2 yards (57-A.Epenesa).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model