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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 2

Buffalo Bills 21 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 11-M.Trubisky pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 2, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model