Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 63

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(3:11) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to BUF 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 0-K.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model