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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

IND
59.1%
JAX
40.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.053 vs Daniel Jones (IND) +0.164 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 26
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: IND by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

IND

Tyquan Lewis DE Out Ankle
Sauce Gardner CB Out Calf

JAX

Andrew Wingard S Out Concussion
Walker Little T Out Concussion
Arik Armstead DT Questionable Hand
Eric Murray S Questionable Neck
Travon Walker DE Questionable Knee
Parker Washington WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 19
–
JAX 36

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:44 TD JAX (10:44) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 04:39 TD IND (4:39) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – JAX 7
  • Q1 02:32 TD JAX (2:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 3-J.Meyers for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – JAX 13
  • Q2 12:59 TD JAX (12:59) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – JAX 20
  • Q2 04:57 FG IND (4:57) 10-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – JAX 21
  • Q2 00:15 TD JAX (:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-T.Patrick for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-40-J.Jones, Illegal Contact, declined. IND 10 – JAX 27
  • Q3 10:01 FG IND (10:01) 10-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – JAX 28
  • Q4 14:09 FG JAX (14:09) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 13 – JAX 31
  • Q4 07:01 SAF JAX (7:01) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Warren [41-J.Hines-Allen]. Jacksonville challenged the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard sacked in End Zone for -9 yards, SAFETY (41-J.Hines-Allen). IND 13 – JAX 33
  • Q4 04:45 FG JAX (4:45) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 13 – JAX 36
  • Q4 01:56 TD IND (1:56) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard scrambles up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – JAX 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to JAX 29 for 15 yards (58-A.Ajiake). IND-38-C.Lammons was injured during the play.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to IND 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-A.Gould to IND 19 for no gain (26-An.Johnson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (4:57) 10-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 46%

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to JAX 45 for -1 yards (44-T.Walker).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (10:01) 10-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 31, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. ** Injury Update: IND-6-A.Gould has returned to the game.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:53) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:19) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to JAX 47 for 1 yard (90-G.Stewart; 44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (14:09) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (7:08) (Shotgun) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne up the middle to IND 9 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%

    (4:45) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.