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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model